Forget 2012! There’s a slight chance that Asteroid Apophis may actually collide with earth in 2029!
In the midst of conjecture and fantasy about the Mayan 2012 end of the world prophecy, real scientific observation has detected an asteroid that is moving toward earth and will pass closer to earth than satellites in orbit in 2029 and 2036.
That’s pretty darn close!
And, it makes me just a wee bit nervous that since the asteroid has only a diameter of 690-1080 feet (210-330 meters) and is 17 years away from its close encounter with earth, there’s a chance that as it gets closer, the original calculations might need to be revised and that it might actually collide with our beloved blue planet!
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Here’s an excerpt from a long scientific-sounding post on NASA’s Near Earth Object Program website:
Researchers at NASA/JPL, Caltech, and Arecibo Observatory have released the results of radar observations of the potentially hazardous asteroid 99942 Apophis, along with an in-depth analysis of its motion. The research will affect how and when scientists measure, predict, or consider modifying the asteroid’s motion. The paper has been accepted for publication in the science journal “Icarus” and was presented at the AAS/DPS conference in Orlando, Florida in October of 2007. The Apophis study was led by Jon Giorgini, a senior analyst in JPL’s Solar System Dynamics group and member of the radar team that observed Apophis.
The analysis of Apophis previews situations likely to be encountered with NEAs yet to be discovered: a close approach that is not dangerous (like Apophis in 2029) nonetheless close enough to obscure the proximity and the danger of a later approach (like Apophis in 2036) by amplifying trajectory prediction uncertainties caused by difficult-to-observe physical characteristics interacting with solar radiation as well as other factors.
